Becoming a member of the BizNews Energy Hour is Phil Craig of the Cape Independence Advocacy Group. Whereas varied folks on either side of the Cape Independence debate have loads of opinions on the matter, Craig has finished a ballot in an effort to receive laborious info. Many individuals within the Cape have been keen on no less than having a referendum, however Craig advised BizNews founder Alec Hogg that analysis performed has discovered that 58% of individuals within the Western Cape desire a referendum on Cape independence. – Jarryd Neves
Phil Craig on the newest statistics into Cape independence:
We used Victory Analysis once more. They’re a really well-respected, unbiased organisation run by Gareth van Onselen. As we did final 12 months, we approached them and so they designed the ballot. We gave them among the questions that we wished the solutions to, however they’d then phrase the query and construction the ballot in a form of scientific method in order that the outcomes are significant and credible. This explicit ballot has a margin of error of 4%.
A few of the headline numbers in these polls will in all probability catch folks unawares. We’ve now bought a state of affairs the place 58% of individuals within the Western Cape desire a referendum on Cape Independence – a transparent majority and properly previous the margin of error for any ballot. Amongst the DA’s personal voters, that goes as much as 65%. I feel after we take that along side the truth that the DA have already introduced [that] they’re bringing this enabling laws earlier than parliament to name referendums, we now have a state of affairs the place the provincial authorities needs to have the ability to name referendums.
A considerable majority of Western Cape voters desire a referendum on Cape Independence, which incorporates two-thirds of the DA’s personal voters. So there’s this clear mandate for a referendum on Cape independence. That was maybe probably the most significant statistic out of there. The one which goes with that – and maybe we’ll even catch extra folks unawares – is that 46.2% of registered voters within the Western Cape now need Cape Independence outright. not solely are we in a state of affairs the place the clear majority desire a referendum on Cape independence, however we’re now inside spitting distance of profitable a referendum on Cape Independence.
On whether or not the latest riots in KZN and elements of Gauteng performed a task within the outcomes:
I’m certain [it] completely did. We really requested folks, did these occasions play a task or affect how they really feel? A lot of folks – about half – mentioned they have been they have been affected by that. Naturally, it could have an enormous significance. On the time we tweeted out, as an organisation, “folks of the Western Cape, you’re now watching a trailer for a movie about the remainder of your life.” Lots of people within the Western Cape are sheltered, they’re on this bubble. They don’t actually perceive simply how unhealthy it’s bought within the [rest of the country].
On why the DA would assist Cape independence in the event that they’ve bought a shot at governing the nation as a complete:
Firstly, have they bought an actual shot? Exterior of the Western Cape, they’ve bought 16% of the vote. They’ve maybe bought a shot of getting a bit of bit extra affect, of being a minor social gathering in a coalition. We frequently look and say, “properly, what does it take to save lots of the Western Cape? What does it take to save lots of South Africa?” On my checklist, It takes management of financial coverage [and the] management of regulation and order. They’re in all probability the 2 elementary issues that it’s important to have. The Western Cape hasn’t bought these at this cut-off date. If the DA will get right into a coalition authorities the place it’s a minority companion, it isn’t going to see its financial insurance policies enacted.
So to start with, the DA isn’t going to save lots of South Africa. That’s the fact. As a lot because the DA needs to save lots of South Africa, South Africa doesn’t need the DA – they’ve made it completely clear that they don’t need non-racialism. They don’t need the social market economic system. They really need the alternative of that. In 2019, 73.1% of voters within the different eight provinces voted both ANC or EFF – and that was the best share ever. In 2019 – regardless of the whole lot we already knew – extra folks than ever earlier than thought the ANC or the EFF have been the answer.
The place does that depart the Western Cape, who actually don’t suppose that? And the place does that depart the DA who simply haven’t been capable of promote their dream in the remainder of South Africa? It’s tragic that they haven’t, however that’s the fact of the state of affairs. The folks of the [province] elected a authorities for the Western Cape and truly, it isn’t okay for the DA to determine that they’re going to mixture the need of the Western Cape folks to bolster their lack of assist in the remainder of South Africa. We’ve elected them because the provincial authorities of the Western Cape. They’re accountable to voters within the Western Cape, to not voters some place else.
If nearly all of us need the referendum, they need to name a referendum. In the event that they don’t, then the implications is finally that they’re going to be introduced under 50% within the Western Cape and compelled to name a referendum. We’ve already seen the Freedom Entrance, [who have] brazenly mentioned, “if we get you under 50%, we are going to make a coalition with you. The phrases of our coalition are that you have to name a referendum on cape independence.”
On how it could have an effect on the Cape economic system:
There’s a report popping out – it’s not ours and it’s not been launched but – however it should put this to mattress as soon as and for all. Treasury’s personal figures, Statistics SA’s personal figures – all of them present that the Western Cape (and each economist we’ve spoken to, with some happening document) all say that the Western Cape is economically viable. There are solely two provinces that assist South Africa: Gauteng and the Western Cape pay into the system, the opposite seven provinces all pull out of the system. The notion that the Western Cape isn’t economically viable is utter nonsense. The Western Cape has 11.2% of South Africa’s inhabitants. It produces 13.9% of South Africa’s GDP. It’s bought 15.4% of South Africa’s taxpayers in it.
We really solely obtain 10.1% of the provincial allocation of funding to provinces. Truly, we’re paying 13.9% into the system and we’re getting 10.9% out of the system. Even when the Western Cape authorities have been no higher than the ANC, we’d nonetheless be 38% financially higher off. Of South Africa’s 10 largest international locations corporations, six are positioned within the within the Western Cape. In 2019, earlier than Covid, 40% of all jobs have been positioned within the Western Cape. We’ve bought Amazon coming right here. In all places you look, the Western Cape is economically viable and it’s completely nonsensical to recommend that it’s not.
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